Planning a film release schedule with data: Y Ffordd Adref

Measure	Tân ar y Mynydd	Merch y Glaw	Y Tonnau
Per-screen average, opening weekend	£2,000	£800	£1,500
Total box office	£120,000	£60,000	£295,000
Drop from Week 1 to Week 2	28.6%	58.3%	18.8%
Share of total taken in Weeks 1 and 2	60.0%	85.0%	59.0%

Working for Y Tonnau: £60,000 ÷ 40 = £1,500 per screen. Total: 96,000 + 78,000 + 55,000 + 34,000 + 20,000 + 12,000 = £295,000. Drop: (96,000 − 78,000) ÷ 96,000 × 100 = 18.75, so 18.8%. Share: (96,000 + 78,000) ÷ 295,000 × 100 = 58.98, so 59.0%.

(b) Rentals: 3,900 + 1,900 + 1,000 + 600 = 7,400 rentals. 7,400 × £5.99 = £44,326. Box office plus rentals: £60,000 + £44,326 = £104,326. That is still £15,674 less than Tân ar y Mynydd took in cinemas alone, on fewer than half the screens, and Tân ar y Mynydd could still earn from streaming after Week 16.

(c) The festival pattern kept audiences coming back: Y Tonnau lost only 18.8% from Week 1 to Week 2, compared with 58.3% for day-and-date, where 85.0% of all its box office had been taken by the end of Week 2, because people could watch at home instead. A small drama for a young audience suits a festival premiere followed by a short gap and a focused cinema release, with streaming kept back until later.

Q1 answer	Aged 15 to 17	Aged 18 to 24	All
At the cinema with friends	58 ÷ 160 = 36.3%	62 ÷ 240 = 25.8%	120 ÷ 400 = 30.0%
Paid streaming service	34 ÷ 160 = 21.3%	86 ÷ 240 = 35.8%	120 ÷ 400 = 30.0%
Any streaming (paid plus free)	74 ÷ 160 = 46.3%	138 ÷ 240 = 57.5%	212 ÷ 400 = 53.0%

(b) The claim is partly supported. It is true that streaming is the most popular way to watch overall: 53.0% chose paid or free streaming. But “young people don’t go to the cinema” is wrong. The cinema is the joint most popular single answer overall (30.0%), and it is the most popular single answer for 15 to 17 year olds (36.3%), ahead of paid streaming (21.3%). Only 20 of 400 said they would not go to the cinema at all. Rewritten claim: “Most young people will watch on streaming, especially 18 to 24 year olds, but the cinema is still the first choice for 15 to 17 year olds, so we need both, in the right order.”

(c) 74 ÷ 160 = 46.3% of 15 to 17 year olds would most like to see it in half term. For 18 to 24 year olds the most popular answer is a weekend in term time: 104 of 240, 43.3%.

When	What happens, and on which platform	Which part of the audience	Evidence
Week 1	Premiere on opening night of the Cwm Cynon Youth Film Festival, entered for the under-25 audience award.	Both age groups; the first people to recommend it.	Y Tonnau, the festival film, dropped only 18.8% in Week 2. 69% say a friend’s recommendation makes them more likely to watch.
Week 2	Trailer released on video platforms, using clips and reactions from the premiere.	Both, especially 15 to 17.	62% say a trailer on a video platform makes them more likely to watch (108 of 160 aged 15 to 17, 67.5%).
Week 5 (half term)	Cinema release on 20 screens, mainly in Wales, with Welsh and English subtitle options at every showing. Avoids Weeks 3 and 4, when the superhero sequel fills the screens.	15 to 17 year olds first.	46.3% of 15 to 17 year olds want to go in half term; cinema is their top choice at 36.3%. 39% want subtitle options. Small, focused releases had the best per-screen average: £2,000 on 14 screens.
Weeks 5 and 6	6 question and answer screenings with the cast, on half-term days and then on the Week 6 weekend.	18 to 24 year olds.	88 of 240 aged 18 to 24 (36.7%) want a Q&A, compared with 27.5% of 15 to 17. Their top time is a term-time weekend (43.3%).
Week 11	Starts on the paid streaming service, for 12 months.	18 to 24 year olds.	35.8% of 18 to 24 year olds choose paid streaming. Week 11 is exactly 6 weeks after the Week 5 opening and before the Week 12 deadline, so it earns £40,000, not £25,000.
After 12 months	Television and the Welsh broadcaster’s free streaming app.	Viewers who would not pay.	23.0% of all respondents choose free streaming, including 25.0% of 15 to 17 year olds.

The festival premiere in Week 1 is designed to start word of mouth, because 69% of our audience say a friend’s recommendation persuades them, and the festival film Y Tonnau held its audience best, dropping only 18.8% in Week 2. Opening in cinemas in half term targets 15 to 17 year olds, whose first choice is the cinema (36.3%) and 46.3% of whom want to go in half term. Keeping streaming back until Week 11 follows the cinemas’ 6-week rule and still earns the £40,000 offer, and it reaches the 35.8% of 18 to 24 year olds who prefer paid streaming. I rejected day-and-date: Merch y Glaw lost 58.3% of its cinema audience in one week and made less overall. The cost is waiting 5 weeks after the festival, so the Week 2 trailer must keep interest alive.

1. The survey sample is biased. Tarian Films found people through its own social media page and two sixth forms in one county. Followers of a film company are more likely than most young people to enjoy the cinema, so the 30.0% cinema figure may be too high, and the Q&A figure may be too. Better data: a survey of young people across all of Wales, recruited through a neutral organisation, with the sample size for each region recorded.

2. The earlier films are not a fair test. There is one film for each pattern, in different genres, on different numbers of screens, and Y Tonnau won an award, which a new film may not. The festival might not be the reason it held its audience. Box office also shows ticket money, not profit, and not how much the cinema kept. Better data: box office and streaming figures for more Welsh films released in each pattern, including dramas that did not win awards.